Down. Basically, down. How far down is the problem. I don’t know. And over what time frame, difficult.

But

1. falling incomes
2. general CPI deflation
3. increased property supply
4. increasing tax burden
5. increasing interest rates
6. increasing unemployment
7. collapse in inward migration
8. increase in net emigration

This suggests downwards in the short term.

On the other hand

1. government action by way of moratoria on repossession proceedings
2. government action on properties securing loans to NAMA
3. ECB giving up on fighting inflation temporarily
4. another financial shock.
5. Demolition of  ghost estates
6. unexpected economic turn around in an as of yet unknown industry sector.

The problem for me is I can’t see what’s going to absorb our unemployment. The Green Party will tell you it’s renewable energy initiatives. So will Spirit of Ireland. Other members of the government ramble on about smart knowledge economy. But I can’t see that sector necessarily absorbing all the current unemployed.

If I had to put anything in writing – and this is a pure guess – I think that in the short term, property is going to head further down for the next 2-2.5 years. After that, I think it will bounce along the bottom for a couple of years.